FSim: the large-fire simulator — Guide to Best Practices version 0.3.1

FSim—the large-fire simulation system—is a comprehensive wildfire occurrence, growth and suppression simulation system that estimates wildfire probability and intensity across a large landscape (Finney and others 2011). Because large fires are rare, FSim generates many thousands of years of simulations, in order to capture a long enough time period to generate burn probabilities for the landscape. FSim is a stochastic simulation system that simulates many thousands of iterations, then integrates those iterations into a probabilistic result. An FSim iteration spans one entire year. For that reason, the terms “fire season” and “year” are often used synonymously with iteration. Simulations with FSim typically use ten- to thirtythousand iterations.

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Introduction to Fire Behavior Modeling

Wildfire is at once a naturally occurring agent for ecological change and a potentially destructive natural phenomenon akin to earthquakes and floods. As wildfire occurrence has increased over the last several decades, so too has interest in the modeling of wildfire behavior. Wildfire behavior modeling is used across a variety of spatial and temporal scales, from planning the management of a wildfire incident over the next few days or weeks to land management planning over millions of acres for decades to come.

The information presented here is not a substitute for modeling experience gained during an apprenticeship under a master or journey-level fire behavior modeler. However, it does provide a solid foundation upon which to build such experience.

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