Risk Assessments

Offering Wildfire Risk Assessments Nationwide

Our industry standard wildfire assessment data has projected wildfire risk data across the entire country as a whole, as well as for counties, communities, utilities, and nearly every state. 

What is Wildfire Risk?

A community’s wildfire risk is the combination of likelihood and intensity (together called “hazard”) and exposure and susceptibility (together called “vulnerability”).

Core models powering our risk assessments:

Burn Probability

Estimates the likelihood of a fire occurring in a specific area within a given time frame by integrating historical fire occurrences, weather patterns, and fuel conditions. 

Fire Intensity

 Predicts flame length based on fuel type, weather conditions, and topography to aid in firefighting strategy and resource planning. 

Community Wildfire Risk

We’ve authored many national-standard datasets commonly used to assess wildfire risk. Each of these locally calibrated datasets, as well as articles and insights about risk reduction can be accessed directly on the Wildfire Risk to Communities website. 

Using our Wildfire Exposure Simulation Tool (WildEST), we continue to refine more detailed data layers that community wildfire managers can use to comprehensively assess and mitigate risk: 

 

Damage Potential

The next iteration of the Conditional Risk to Potential Structures dataset that also includes ember load 

Structure Exposure Score

The next version of the Risk to Potential Structures dataset that includes ember load and classifies every structure across the nation into one of ten classes 

Ember Production and Load

A model of the number of embers produced and their downwind transport 

Functional WUI

A delineation and classification of the wild and urban interface into operational zones that indicate what actions are best to take – including home hardening, fuel management, and indoor air quality management

Risk Assessments Prepared for Clients

A Pilot Wildfire Risk Assessment for Texas

The purpose of the Texas Wildfire Risk Assessment (TWRA) is to provide foundational information about wildfire hazard across the geographic area. Such information supports wildfire response, regional fuel management planning, and revisions to land and resource management plans. A wildfire risk assessment is a quantitative analysis of the assets and resources across a specific landscape […]

A Pilot Wildfire Risk Assessment for California

The pilot effort to assess risk to certain highly valued resources and assets is an extension of the California All-Lands Hazard Assessment, a project funded by the USDA Forest Service that produced fuel and wildfire hazard information for the year 2020. Since that time, the wildfire hazard data has been updated to reflectthe historic wildfire […]

Wildfire Risk for All Lands in Colorado

The effort to produce a quantitative wildfire risk assessment across all land ownerships in Colorado began in February 2019 when the Rocky Mountain Region of the USDA Forest Service contracted with Pyrologix to calibrate and update a fuelscape, conduct wildfire hazard modeling, characterize the response of multiple Highly Valued Resources and Assets (HVRA) to wildfire, […]

Wildfire Risk Across the Eastern Region

In April 2019, the Eastern Region of the U.S. Forest Service contracted with Pyrologix to conduct a spatial wildfire hazard assessment across all land ownerships in the Eastern Region states. The initial focus of the project was to conduct a wildfire risk assessment for homes, critical infrastructure, and water resources in the Eastern Region. Project […]

Chugach All-Lands Wildfire Risk Assessment: Method and Results

The purpose of the Chugach All-Lands Wildfire Risk Assessment (hereafter called ARRA1 ) is to provide foundational information about wildfire hazard and risk to highly valued resources and assets for the Chugach National Forest and surrounding areas in Southcentral Alaska. Such information supports wildfire response, fuel management planning, and revisions to land and resource management […]

Wildfire Risk to California Communities

We assessed wildfire risk to homes and communities in California as part of a larger assessment of wildfire hazard across the state. In July 2019 the Pacific Southwest Region of the U.S. Forest Service contracted with Pyrologix to conduct a spatial wildfire hazard assessment across all land ownerships. This summary of wildfire risk to California […]

Region 2–San Juan National Forest Quantitative Wildfire Risk Assessment: Methods and Results

The purpose of the Region 2: San Juan National Forest Risk Assessment (R2SJ) is to provide foundational information about wildfire hazard and risk to highly valued resources and assets across the geographic area. Such information supports wildfires, fuel management planning decisions, and revisions to land and resource management plans. A wildfire risk assessment is a […]

Region 2–Rio Grande National Forest Quantitative Wildfire Risk Assessment: Methods and Results

The purpose of the Region 2: Rio Grande National Forest Risk Assessment (R2RG) is to provide foundational information about wildfire hazard and risk to highly valued resources and assets across the geographic area. Such information supports wildfires, fuel management planning decisions, and revisions to land and resource management plans. A wildfire risk assessment is a […]

USFS Region 5–Southern California Quantitative Wildfire Risk Assessment: Methods and Results

The purpose of the USFS Region 5 Southern California Wildfire Risk Assessment (SCRA) is to provide foundational information about wildfire hazard and risk to highly valued resources and assets across the geographic area. Such information supports wildfires, regional fuel management planning decisions, and revisions to land and resource management plans. A wildfire risk assessment is […]

Northern Region Wildfire Risk Assessment: methods and results

The purpose of the USFS Northern Region Wildfire Risk Assessment (NoRRA) is to provide foundational information about wildfire hazard and risk to highly valued resources and assets across the Region. Such information supports regional fuel management planning decisions as well as revisions to land and resource management plans. A wildfire risk assessment is a quantitative […]

Pacific Northwest Quantitative Wildfire Risk Assessment: methods and results

The purpose of the USFS Pacific Northwest Region Wildfire Risk Assessment (PNRA) is to provide foundational information about wildfire hazard and risk to highly valued resources and assets across the geographic area. Such information supports wildfires, regional fuel management planning decisions, and revisions to land and resource management plans. A wildfire risk assessment is a […]

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